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George says Microsoft is killing the PC

[ahem]

Nope.

George raised the argument over on his blog that, with the introduction of the X-Box 360, Microsoft is going to torture, maim, bleed, and kill the PC.

Granted, he didn’t use all those words, but that’s pretty much what he’s saying.

The argument can be summarized as:

– Gamers buy expensive PC’s

– The X-Box is a cheap expensive PC meant only for playing games

– Gamers will no longer buy PC’s

– Gamers will buy X-Box 360’s

– The PC will die

I’d argue that the PC isn’t going to die – at least not because of products like the X-Box 360.

What we’re seeing is some specialization. It turns out that it’s a much better idea to produce games for a gaming machine rather than a general purpose desktop. You know what the hardware is, you’ve got your dev kits, and you have your market. Gaming on the PC involves a lot of guesswork – Is our game going to run on [X] machine? Is the three gig storage requirement going to deter some customers? What range of video cards will we have to support? Will we have graphics features that require the latest and greatest? Do we really want to have to write an engine that will scale down for all these different platforms? Are we going to piss off Mac users (again) by releasing for their systems a year after the PC release?

What do you have to think about with the X-Box 360?

Not much: Is this game going to suck?

Specialization is a good thing.

But, what’s it going to do for PC’s? I certainly don’t have any clear idea, but I imagine that consumers will be a little less confused about requirements. If they can plunk several hundred down on a kick-ass dedicated gaming machine, then they might actually be more willing to pay for a PC. No longer feeling that they’d have to go for the top of the line ($2,500–$4,000), but rather a machine that was just “good enough” ($800), a lot of pressure would be taken off. Then there’s the benefit of owning a gaming machine and a business/net machine for about $1,100 rather than three times that. It would also be nice for families that have little territorial battles over the PC – some bastard kid wants to blow up zombies, but mom and dad want to browse the web for a car. Problem solved with the gaming machine/PC scenario.

‘Course, I personally believe we’re going to see cell phones take the place of the PC over the next decade or so. That might seem a bit soon, but we don’t need a whole heck of a lot to make it happen. You could have your “phone” docking station at home/work, and just take some small, portable peripherals with you on the road along with some compact display (glasses that work as a monitor/HUD/whatever).

I’m a little groggy from a bad night of sleep, though, so I might just be spouting loonericities.

Published Wednesday, June 01, 2005 4:28 PM by Rory

Filed Under:

Comments

 

Nicholas Paldino [.NET/C# MVP] said:

I agree that the one concern with a gaming console is "Is this game going to suck". Unfortunately, MS doesn't seem to be asking themselves that question often enough, since most of the time, the answer is an overwhelming "yes" (in the case of the X-Box).
June 1, 2005 4:35 PM
 

Rick said:

Well, since the XBox 360 will be able to browse the web, play multimedia off your network/its hard drive, etc, There is not going to be a whole lot of need to be buying a new PC or upgrading...

I wouldnt be surprised if you will eventually be able to run MS Office on an XBox, or any other windows app.

Might make more sense for MS anyhow, because right now they only make money on the OS ($100-$200 per machine) and pretty much nothing on the hardware (except keyboard/mouse and such, which you will need for the XBox anyhow to use it as a PC). Now they will be selling their machine for $300, they still come off better.

I probably wont be buying another gaming PC (or an XBox, ill stick with Sony thanks) anytime soon.

June 1, 2005 5:20 PM
 

Steven said:

"I wouldnt be surprised if you will eventually be able to run MS Office on an XBox, or any other windows app."

I wouldn't be surprised either, but why would you want to? Gamers are a very picky group of people and judging by the last 2 comments its all about the games. The rest is just a bonus. A gamer could care less if it can run Windows apps unless those Windows apps somehow enhance the gameplay.
June 1, 2005 5:30 PM
 

George said:

Not only do I believe the XBox (in combination with the PS3 and MAYBE the Nintendo Revolution) going to "torture, maim, bleed and kill the PC", but the XBox is going to rule the kingdom in place of the PC

Microsoft's goal of getting the PC to become the media presence in every homes living room is finally being realized in the form of the XBox.

I'm not saying people won't have PCs. But there's no doubt the PC industry is going to take a huge hit with the release of these new gaming consoles and I think there will be a shift in who uses a PC and what tasks they use it for.

I personally have no need to upgrade my personal computer any time soon. With the purchase of an XBox360, I'll be good for quite a while with the machine I have. Before the announcement of the XBox (and PS3), I was going to be required to buy a new PC just to play the next version of Unreal Tournament.

So a very large segment of the PC population (gamers) that typically replaced their machines every 2-3 years on average, no longer have to do that expensive and costly PC replacement over and over again. That's got to be a huge chunk of change gone from all areas of the PC market (video cards, memory, motherboards, cases, etc.)

The fact that the XBox can take a keyboard and mouse, gives you a PC right from your couch. Buy 2 and you have a PC for your office AND your living room. Both are top of the line gaming machines and both can stream video and music wirelessly! (If the announcements of what will be supported at E3 actually get built in)

The Linux guys were already buying the original XBox for a cheap Linux box, now the PC users have their $400 (estimated) ultimate gaming machine.

So now who needs a PC? Developers, graphic artists, businesses and hobbyists will still need a PC, but that's pretty much it (I realize that's still a large segment, but the PC just got kicked out of the house) The PC needs of more and more standard home users will be met or exceeded by every new release of the XBox console. The XBox is already grabbing the gamers, next comes the internet surfers and e-mailers then it's only a matter of time until the PC dies.

I just don't know how the PC industry is going to survive (especially with cell phones Rory, now they're being attack on 2 strong fronts! Get an XBox and a new cell phone and why do you need a PC?).
June 1, 2005 5:50 PM
 

Steve Majewski said:

June 1, 2005 7:03 PM
 

John said:

I don't own an xbox, and I have no plans ever to do so.
June 1, 2005 7:15 PM
 

George said:

John,

"I don't own an xbox, and I have no plans ever to do so."

Thanks for letting us know. My point has now been totally invalidated.

Just to let everyone know, I was wrong, the PC will continue to live because John will not buy an XBox.

June 1, 2005 9:12 PM
 

Steve said:

George, thanks for dealing with that comment. Whatever I might have said wouldn't have been nearly as funny.

I highly doubt the Xbox360 will be able to replace the PC for one simple reason. Traditionally console manufacturers lose money on the hardware and make their losses back up on licensed software. If Microsoft makes the 360 a full replacement for the PC they'd risk having people buy the hardware and never buy enough games to pay for Microsoft's initial loss. That's why the Xbox doesn't play DVDs terribly well - when the Xbox came out DVD players were $200-$250 and the Xbox was $300. Microsoft didn't want to risk having people buy an Xbox just to watch DVDs so they made sure that DVD playback was barely adequate (I have quite a few that won't play at all).

I think the same thing will be true with the 360 to a degree. Now they don't have to worry about the DVD playback because DVD players cost $30 to $40 at the low end. No one in their right mind would buy a 360 just to watch DVDs. However, if it did everything grandma needs her PC for she might buy it to email her grandkids and never buy any games.
June 1, 2005 9:19 PM
 

Wade said:

So, if each new release of the XBox takes over more and more of the PC's duties, eventually you will end up with a PC in a standardized, proprietary package. Doesn't that basically just make the Xbox Microsoft's answer to the Mac?
June 1, 2005 10:14 PM
 

Rory said:

Rick 'n George -

(First off, on the cell phone again, so no way to quote previous comments.)

Granted, the 360 will be able to get on the web, deal with multimedia, etc, but that's still a far cry from being a PC. One of the ways they manage to eke so much performance out of consoles is by stripping out every feature that isn't necessary. I'd be shocked if all the bits were in place to, for example, run Office.

Any additions to the system to make it possible to run apps like Office and its kind would eventually turn the X-Box into...

...a computer that's attached to a TV.

I don't know about you, but I'm not content with the kind of resolution I can get out of my (HD)TV, and doubt that I'd enjoy doing any real work plopped down in front of the ol' entertainment center (which I don't really have).

Anyway, I'm guessing we couldn't move ten feet in the direction of replacing the PC with the X-Box without PC manufacturers raising hell. We'd eventually probably have to open the platform up and let other vendors manufacture to our spec, resulting in...

...more computers that are attached to TV's.

The future, then, even if dominated by the X-Box, looks more like a place where PC's get replaced by PC's attached to TV's.

If anybody should be pissed off here, it's the monitor makers.

But, I don't think there will be cause to worry, as I really don't see any of this happening.

The X-Box, although a prominent feature of your living room entertainment center, is unlikely to dethrone the PC.

Then, let's just talk about businesses - are we going to see X-Boxes stacking up in offices around the world? I don't think so. The X-Box will be able to do very *well* what most businesses don't need *at all*, whereas a PC will continue to provide value by doing a good job of what a console could only do poorly, if at all.

I'm going to quit typing now. Since it isn't yet the day and age of the cell phone VR glasses display, it's easy to get lost in one of these long rants.
June 1, 2005 10:53 PM
 

paul said:

64bit Longhorn with a gigabit GPU for a 3DUI.
10 TeraByte SATA HD, 64bit Surround Sound and a Gigabit Ethernet to network your XBOX 360, your telephone, your heater/air condishner, your security/fire alarm and your refrigerator so a Web Service can ring your cellphone to tell you that the milk is going sour.
June 2, 2005 12:45 AM
 

Barry Kelly said:

There isn't a hope in hell of any console attached to a tv that isn't set up like a desktop PC ever replacing the PC gaming platform. There've been several games of the past couple of years (Thief 3 and Deus Ex 2 chief among them) that were crippled to fit on the Xbox, and consequently largely sucked when run on a PC.

With the amount of investment a gamer is able to put into their PC, there is no way a cheap console will ever compete: the console may be state of the art for the first 2-3 months after its release, but consoles need to live for at least 2-3 years before they're replaced: by that stage, they'll be two years out of date.
June 2, 2005 8:20 AM
 

Ian said:

This has been debated on my blog before

I see the XBOX 360 increasing PC sales.
With the 360's media center center functions it going increase the demand for Windows Media Center PC's

I will be using a 360 as a games machine and a Extender for my Media Center PC (so I can replace the DVD player, the video the PVR etc) with the one device and move my Media Center PC out of the way as a server.

Then again I would say that I love my Media Center PC (and host a Media Center Podcast)

June 2, 2005 11:04 AM
 

Nat said:

The arguments on how consoles will kill the PC as a gaming platform aren't new. When the PS2 and XBox first came out, many predicted the demise of the PC as a gaming system, because they were so expensive. Yet the PC is still a dominant gaming platform, for a few reasons.

1 - Upgradability. Hard-core gamers aren't willing to wait 2-3 years between releases of consoles. They want the latest and greatest as soon as it's available, and they're willing to pay top dollar for it.

2 - Peripherals. The crappy controllers that come with consoles just don't cut it. Gamers all know that for FPS games, you need a mouse and keyboard to compete. You also need a high resolution monitor, because the TV resolution simply isn't enough to show all of the details, and you can't push the resolution high enough to see everything you want to see on the screen.

I can't imagine trying to do email on a low-resolution screen, much less playing a game.

3 - Games. The best games are all on PC at this point. This is an insanely subjective comment, but it really is the primary reason the PC is my primary gaming platform.

4 - Necessity. PCs are a quickly becoming a necessity for things like email, internet research, keeping track of information like finances and contact lists. So if their kids come around asking for video games, why would a parent go out and buy an XBox rather than pick up game already available on the PC?

Same logic applies to most people. Why spend 300$ on a console to play a game if I already have a gaming platform in the house?

Consoles are a niche product. They're for casual gamers who have no need for the PC. I think the XBox 360 will reduce PC sales slightly, since it will have email and web browsing capabilities, eliminating the need for a PC for these tasks. But it won't even come close to killing the PC.



June 2, 2005 1:40 PM
 

Rick said:

"
2 - Peripherals. The crappy controllers that come with consoles just don't cut it. Gamers all know that for FPS games, you need a mouse and keyboard to compete."

umm, yeah, theres a good argument. Nice try, but the new consoles will have several (6 i think) USB ports, so you can plug in 3 keyboards and 3 mice if you like...


"You also need a high resolution monitor, because the TV resolution simply isn't enough to show all of the details, and you can't push the resolution high enough to see everything you want to see on the screen. "

HDTV (1080x1920) just wont cut it for you eh?


June 2, 2005 3:14 PM
 

Rory said:

Hmm...

One thing I'll say regarding the low-res email issue is that the 360 is going to be an HD device.

Although I don't consider the resolution of an HD TV to be good enough for a main machine, I think it will be just fine for the bit of emailing and browsing that users might do.
June 2, 2005 3:15 PM
 

George said:

I like the discussion guys, but I'm seeing a lot of you guys post things that were true in the PAST.

"Gamers all know that for FPS games, you need a mouse and keyboard to compete."

The XBox360 and PS3 will both take a keyboard and mouse (as Rick pointed out several)

" Hard-core gamers aren't willing to wait 2-3 years between releases of consoles"

these are the die hards i was talking about, yes, they will still buy a PC. Most gamers aren't hard core though. They're kids, and college kids and 27 year old new parents. I don't have the money and most kids don't have the money to keep upgrading their machine. the XBox just bought these gamers and guess what, they are the majority not the die hards so the PC market just got severely cut.

all of Nats other arguments are outdated as well. the best games are on the PC at this point? Halo? and you used a very revealing wording there, "at this point", i'm arguing that is no longer true. the games are becoming the same. have you watched the demos of Unreal Tournament 2007 for the PS3? the PC no longer has that argument. Even RPG's now have the harddrive space and disk space (blueray discs) to be as good and better on a console.

your arguments were good Nat YEARS AGO, but now the console has basically become a PC. It's got a harddrive, it has 3 3.2 ghz processors, it can stream music and video, you can do email and surf the web, it's got USB ports and accepts multiple types of disc formats.

please people, if you're going to argue against this do so, but take the time to go read the system specs for the XBox360 and the PS3 and then using this CURRENT information, make your point.

Saves us all a bunch of time and time is money...
June 2, 2005 5:15 PM
 

Asd said:

I read somewhere that the 360 processors don't do instruction reordering so they are actually pretty crappy for general purpose computing (anything that's not linear number crunching type stuff). Remember when someone eventually managed to make a cluster of Xboxs? They had worse performance than a cluster a really cheap PCs would have.

> So, if each new release of the XBox takes over more and more of the PC's duties, eventually you will end up with a PC in a standardized, proprietary package. Doesn't that basically just make the Xbox Microsoft's answer to the Mac?

Hmm. It's all a conspiracy! Microsoft can't dump backward compatibility (and the standard ui) in Windows so they are sneaking in a new platform through the XBox.
June 3, 2005 9:05 AM
 

Mark Miller said:

I think George was being provocative (or narrow-minded) about the PC. The primary reason ordinary people buy PCs today is to browse the web, do webchat by text (it's nicer for that than a cell phone), and send and receive e-mail (again, the cell phone is fine for short notes, but really tedious when writing long messages), and perhaps word processing for producing professional documents. What may happen WRT gaming on the PC is gaming companies could continue producing games for the PC, but ones with less of the bells, whistles, and detail, since people will likely be buying PCs with the less powerful graphics cards, using your scenario where people buy the XBox for the good games, but get the cheap PC for something else.
June 3, 2005 9:18 AM
 

Mark Miller said:

Unless you have an HDTV display you are not going to be satisfied with running productivity applications on your TV (some have suggested we'll be able to run Office on the XBox). The analog sets still use the same resolution they used years ago. It's so low that running Office on a computer hooked up to your TV set would ruin your eyes. It just can't handle it.

What's good about systems like the XBox, PS2, and Nintendo is they're designed to be hooked up to analog TV sets. PC aren't. Their display technology is designed to be run on a high resolution monitor. That's the reason browsing the web, and running Office are going to look A LOT better on a PC than on a TV set. An HDTV display would suffice, I would think though.
June 3, 2005 9:31 AM
 

John said:

"umm, yeah, theres a good argument. Nice try, but the new consoles will have several (6 i think) USB ports, so you can plug in 3 keyboards and 3 mice if you like... "

umm, yeah, theres a good argument. Nice try, but the PC has an almost infinite supply of USB ports, so you can plug in a lot more than 3 keyboard and mice at a time. IF IT WAS POSSIBLE WITH TWO HANDS!. Retard.
June 1, 2006 7:07 PM
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